Pennsylvania’s long predicted energy crunch has not gone away — it has only been delayed.
PJM Interconnection says the region will not meet required power reserves starting in June 2027. The shortfall is driven by a slow replacement of retiring power plants and rising demand from electrification and data centers, PJM officials have said.
That means if nothing changes, the region will be more vulnerable to outages, said Jeff Shields, PJM’s senior manager of external communications.
As the largest power grid operator in the country, PJM coordinates the flow of electricity to utilities across a 13-state region and the District of Columbia.
In 2023, PJM warned of “reliability risks” that would increase the chance of power outages. Later, they predicted that a capacity shortage could hit as soon as June of this year. But in December, PJM said electric supplies are projected to fall short of the “reserve margin” for the period of June 2027 to May 2028.
The reserve margin is essentially a cushion of electricity available for emergencies or other unexpected circumstances. This would be the first time the grid operator might not meet its reliability requirements, Shields said. Supplies are enough to meet predicted demand but leave less of a buffer if something goes wrong.
In a news release, PJM remained hopeful that the gap between supply and demand would close before June 2027: Actual demand for electricity could be lower than predicted, or generators that plan to retire could stay online, among other factors.
But the underlying problem — insufficient electric supply combined with extraordinary demand — has dogged the PJM region in recent years.
Old power plants are retiring, and new ones are slow to connect to the grid. At the same time, electrification, combined with the proliferation of data centers, many of which are being built to support artificial intelligence, has driven demand.
“These data centers, [some of] which are as big as cities, can be built in a couple of years,” said Jon Gordon, director of Advanced Energy United, a national industry association that advocates for public policies supporting clean energy.
According to Shields and Gordon, the growth of data centers could represent the largest increase in electricity demand in the region since widespread electrification of the 20th century.
“These developers and owners of data centers are obviously shopping numerous sites, not only in Pennsylvania, but other states, and also other places outside of the PJM region, completely,” said Darryl Lawrence, Pennsylvania’s Consumer Advocate, a state agency that represents utility customers.
But Igal Feibush, CEO of Pennsylvania Data Center Partners, a developer and owner of data centers, said that the power needed to run all the new data centers is overestimated.
“I’m not suggesting there won’t be challenges, but I believe that there’s enough time and there’s certainly enough money,” he said, “to address those challenges.”
Government organizations and advocacy groups across the country are working to develop solutions.
One approach would require data centers to generate their own power. Another approach would require data centers to disconnect from the grid first during emergency situations, provided they do not supply essential services.
“Residential customers, small commercial customers, would be last in line to be cut off if there were rolling blackouts or rolling brownouts,” said Lawrence, who said he is in favor of the solution.
The new demand has also laid bare other challenges, including PJM’s lengthy interconnection queue, according to the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. It could take years for a new power plant to come online.
The interconnection process remains a hurdle, a spokesperson for Gov. Josh Shapiro’s office said.
Earlier this month PJM announced their support for proposals to integrate large new power users and keep the grid reliable.
The grid operator encouraged data centers and other “large load” customers to bring their own electric generation. If data centers do not bring their own electricity, PJM may advocate for them to curtail their demand in emergency situations.
Hannah Frances Johansson is a reporter for the Pittsburgh Media Partnership newsroom. She holds a master’s degree from the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism. She is a 2025 recipient of the Overseas Press Club Scholar Award and a former 11thHour Food and Farming Fellow. Her reporting has appeared on CNN, Pittsburgh’s Public Source, and Michigan Public Radio, among others. She resides in the city’s North Side. Reach her at hannah.johansson@pointpark.edu.
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