Democracy & Doubt
Pittsburgh navigates trust and choice in the 2024 election season
This year’s election largely revolves around the economy, post-COVID recovery and inflation.
“Americans are struggling in [President Joe] Biden’s economy,” claims an ad by Make America Great Again Inc., alleging surging electricity costs and food prices.
The “Biden and Harris team got to work rebuilding America’s economy,” counters an ad by Unite the Country.
In her presidential bid, Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, has proposed enhanced tax credits for families with kids, housing assistance and efforts to stop price gouging.
Former President Donald Trump, a Republican, pledges to impose tariffs while bringing prices down and cut taxes if he’s elected.
How will that rhetoric and those issues play in the Pittsburgh region, which is fairly evenly divided between the two major parties and sits within the largest swing state?
Regional economic leaders like the Allegheny Conference and the Southwestern Pennsylvania Commission declined to comment on the local economy for this story. Data suggests that Pittsburgh’s economy — like the nation’s — has recovered from COVID-induced lull, though with its own strengths and challenges.
Regional economy still in transition
Economics Professor Ken Louie of Penn State University Behrend, in Erie, said the region’s economy continues to be molded by a combination of technology and industry.
“Most people understand we continue to go through this massive transition where the economy was heavily dominated by industry and now it’s moved towards health and using advanced technology to transform industry,” Louie said. “We don’t want to displace manufacturing completely, we want to build on our historic legacy and do it in a more nimble and efficient way based on new technology.”
Louie said a good example of this development is the push for computer chip manufacturing to the U.S. He said that one of the region’s strengths is the relationship between scholars and entrepreneurs.
Robert Strauss, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University, said that the local economy is like a stool with three legs: business, medical and educational communities.
“These were the three comparative advantages of Pittsburgh,” he said. They emerged from a century of dynamism, then multiple city renaissances.
“The civic fabric is basically gone that led to Renaissance I and II,” he said. “When the fabric is gone, trust is gone and people are trying to get the hell out.”
The region’s population, after decades of losses, is now reasonably stable.
Have eds, meds and business brought reasonable cost of living and economic growth in the last five years?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stopped issuing data on prices in the Pittsburgh region in 2017.
Strauss said the most accurate way to diagnose an area’s economic condition is to see how much people pay for basic needs like utilities, from electric to gas to water.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data on per capita consumer spending indicates that people are consistently paying more, in total, for goods, services and utilities in Pennsylvania than the national average. But from 2019 through 2022 the increase in such spending in the state (18%) was less steep than that of the nation as a whole (nearly 21%).
Louie said inflation isn’t the only thing causing goods to be more expensive.
“Where you have increases in cost, you see that in sectors of the economy where there’s not much competition,” Louie said. “So we have to make sure we have competition in our industries. We have laws in the books related to preventing concentrated market power. But that’s not easy.”
In 2022, Allegheny County produced nearly $119 billion in current-dollar total gross domestic product [GDP], representing an 11% increase from 2019, when the county’s GDP stood at $107 billion.
The GDP is a measurement of the sum of all goods and services produced in a region.
The nation’s GDP in 2019 was $21.5 trillion, which increased to $25.7 trillion by 2022, far outpacing Pittsburgh’s growth.
Other statistics show signs of promise. Construction projects in the county between 2012 to 2023 added 21,494 new parcels with buildings valued at $9.93 billion. With this came $8.74 billion in assessed value added to the tax rolls.
But Strauss warned of another economic marker: persistent Downtown vacancy and resulting loss in tax revenue from a hollowed-out urban center.
He said the region has a legacy of businesses and political entities working together to improve the city’s infrastructure, which sets the foundation for growth.
“These are areas that could be corrected if people decide to do their jobs and act responsibly,” Strauss said. “Who’s going to step up and do something?”
Housing: Pittsburgh prices up, but still relatively affordable
Pittsburgh home sale prices have climbed, but remain far below national averages and surging levels in larger cities.
“Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have promised to make homeownership more affordable, but only Harris has signaled that housing is a top priority,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, in a press release. “Her plan to build 3 million new homes could make starter homes more affordable for the average American family. One pathway Harris has suggested for accomplishing that goal is through incentives to local governments and subsidies for builders of affordable housing.”
According to reports, Trump has proposed lowering interest rates, an area over which the executive has no direct control because it’s up to the Federal Reserve. He has also claimed his plan to deport undocumented immigrants could ease housing demand.
Trump has also emphasized rolling back regulations.
Home sales in the state hit 11,575 in July, a 9.6% increase compared to July 2023, according to the most recent report prepared for the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. The median sales price decreased slightly since the previous month, hitting $307,750, according to PAR.
In the Pittsburgh metro area, median home sale prices hit a high of $251,000 in June. Redfin indicates that prices remained at that level in July. That’s up from $156,000 in February 2020, right before the COVID-induced shutdown.
Pittsburgh rents continue to rise. According to Zillow Rental Manager, the current median rent for units of all kinds is $1,488. That figure is up $88 from last year and represents a $38 increase month over month.
Pittsburgh-area unemployment rates were higher than the nation’s in 2019. This year, they’re lower. There’s no guarantee that will continue.
“There is gradual weakening of the labor market,” said Louie. “The pace of job growth is slowing down.”
He noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently revised its national job creation estimate downward by 800,000.
He added that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this month. “That’s likely to give a boost to the economy.”
While relatively few Pittsburghers are unemployed, earnings lag behind the national average.
In 2022, Allegheny County logged a per capita personal income of $70,837. Nationally, the real median household income was $74,580 in 2022, according to the Census Bureau.
This article is part of U.S. Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on Sept. 15, the International Day of Democracy, in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. To learn more, visit usdemocracyday.org.
Este reportaje forma parte del Día de la Democracia en Estados Unidos, una colaboración a escala nacional que se celebra el 15 de septiembre, Día Internacional de la Democracia, en la que las salas de redacción informan sobre el proceso democrático y las amenazas que se ciernen sobre la democracia. Para más información, visite usdemocracyday.org.
Eric Jankiewicz is PublicSource’s economic development reporter, and can be reached at ericj@publicsource.org or on Twitter @ericjankiewicz.
This story was fact-checked by Amber Frantz.
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