The minimum wage. Marijuana legalization. Tax rates. Data center regulations. Skill games. Stadium renovations. These and more state-level policies are at stake in this November’s elections in Pennsylvania, with the governor’s office on the ballot along with both houses of the General Assembly, which today are narrowly divided.
The outcome, and which party gets to set the agenda next year, may come down to a handful of competitive seats out of hundreds on the ballot. In the House, all 203 districts are in play this year, but many are safely blue or red. Of those districts, 147 went for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris by margins of 15 percentage points or more in 2024. The same is true for 15 of the 25 state Senate districts going before voters.
Entering this election, Democrats hold a three-seat advantage in the state House, while Republicans hold a four-seat edge in the Senate. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is running for a second term against Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Shapiro has spent millions promoting downballot candidates, hoping not only to win re-election but to help his party take unified control of state government for the first time in a generation.
Much of the contest is being waged in Eastern Pennsylvania: The four state Senate seats Democrats are targeting for their attempted takeover are near Philadelphia, and the state’s most competitive U.S. House seats are there, too, drawing attention and spending away from Pittsburgh.
The Pittsburgh area has a handful of competitive state House races, though, and each party has its eyes on taking new — and in at least one case, familiar — territory.
Local Democratic candidates said they are hearing from voters who are frustrated with President Donald Trump and the cost of gas, groceries and other expenses.
“I think there’s real dissatisfaction with the current administration and so people who were blindly following the Trump administration two years ago are tired of it and are willing to listen to alternatives,” said Hadley Haas, a Democrat running in Pittsburgh’s western suburbs.
Brian Weismantle, the chair of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County, acknowledged that “any sitting president” has an effect on a midterm election, but declined to offer an assessment of Trump’s term so far. “I’m going to leave that alone at this point.”
“I’m just going to say that people are going to decide what they want to decide, and that’s what we’re going to have to live with. And hopefully they make the right decisions, whatever they may be,” Weismantle said.
One battleground district Republican candidate, Scott Timko of Butler County, said Trump has been an exceptionally “consequential” president and has followed through on his campaign promises, but said future historians may be better positioned to assess his job performance.
Here are three state House races to watch next Tuesday as the story of the 2026 election comes into focus.
12th District: ‘Hair on fire’ voters
The district: The southwestern corner of Butler County. Municipalities: Adams, Callery, Cranberry, Evans City, Harmony, Jackson, Mars, Seven Fields, Valencia, Zelienople
The candidates: The incumbent is Democrat Brandon Dukes, who was elected in an August special election and has worked as a loan administrator for the past 16 years. Scott Timko, a commercial pilot and former Air Force captain, is the Republican nominee. Both live in Cranberry.
The past results:
2026 special: Dukes (D) +0.5
2024 presidential: Trump (R) +18
2024 legislative: Scialabba (R) +30
2022 legislative: Scialabba (R) +24
This seat has been a Republican stronghold in recent memory, was held by conservative Daryl Metcalfe for almost a quarter century, and favored Trump by 18 points in 2024. That’s not the profile of a typical battleground seat, but everything changed this August when Democrat Brandon Dukes won it in a special election by 98 votes.
Dukes faces a rematch with Timko Nov. 3, and Republicans are hoping the larger turnout expected for a general election will help flip the seat back to their column.
Timko said higher turnout in the general election would benefit him due to the Republicans’ 1.75-to-1 voter registration edge in the district, even if Democrats are highly motivated to oppose the president.
“I’m certainly aware that people who oppose him have their hair on fire to come out and make a referendum to oppose Trump,” Timko said. “When it comes to registration, we have a majority. If he motivates people to the polls, I tend to think that helps me.”
Even if the seat goes back to the Republicans, this is turf that has changed significantly in recent years. Both candidates pointed out that Cranberry and other parts of Butler County have grown significantly, and both said a priority will be upgrading infrastructure to better support the larger population.
“I’ve been mainly focusing on Republican and independent doors for this race because they have the advantage over us,” Dukes said. “A lot of people who’ve been Republican their whole life and I knock on their door and [they] say we voted for you in the special.”
Dukes said he’s seen discontent among voters in the district toward the cost of gas and “chaos coming from the top.”
“A lot of them were just looking to make a change” he said.
Timko also identified prices as the top issue for voters this year, but blamed former President Joe Biden.
“We’re only two years away from trying to climb out of the disaster of the Biden administration and runaway inflation and printing money hand over fist,” Timko said. “inflation is pretty low [now] … The cost of groceries, the cost of fuel right now is pretty high, that’s probably number one on their mind.”
44th District: Among the county’s purple turfs
The district: Pittsburgh suburbs on the western edge of Allegheny County. Municipalities: Aleppo, Bell Acres, Crescent, Edgeworth, Findlay, Glen Osborne, Glenfield, Haysville, Leet, Leetsdale, Moon, North Fayette, Sewickley, Sewickley Heights, Sewickley Hills
The candidates: The incumbent is Republican Rep. Valerie Gaydos of Edgeworth. She was first elected to the seat in 2018. The Democratic challenger is Hadley Haas, a Glen Osborne resident who is a full-time volunteer with a gun safety advocacy organization. Haas also challenged Gaydos in 2024.
The past results:
2024 presidential: Trump (R) +4
2024 legislative: Gaydos (R) +8
2022 legislative: Gaydos (R) +10
This airport-area district went for Trump in 2024, but by the narrowest margin of any of Allegheny County’s “red” districts, making it Democrats’ top target for a flip this year. Haas is one of many Democratic candidates hopeful that Trump’s negative approval ratings, and anger over gas prices and the war in Iran, will turn the tide in a contested race.
Haas said the top issue raised by voters on the campaign trail has been affordability of gas and other essentials.
“I’ve heard people talking about how their elderly relatives are going to have to move in with them,” Haas said. “Recent college grads have been forced to move out of state because they feel life isn’t affordable here in Pennsylvania … people are frustrated that the costs are going up and they’re not making more money.”
Voters swinging against the party in power would be in keeping with historical trends. The president’s party lost seats in one or both houses of Congress in 21 of the last 23 midterm elections, including each of the last five. That trend also applied to Pennsylvania state House elections dating back at least to 1994.
Last year’s municipal and judicial elections may also give Democrats some reason for optimism: Four municipalities, including the largest in the district (Moon), were carried by Trump in 2024 but went for a Democratic judicial candidate in 2025.
Gaydos did not agree to an interview request for this story, saying her schedule was too busy. Her campaign website gives education issues top priority, and she has called for local communities to have a greater voice in data center development decisions.
Weismantle said legislative races like this one will come down to which party can generate better voter turnout.
“Especially in the midterms, the voters always seem to slack off,” Weismantle said. “It’s one of those things, we just don’t know what’s going to happen until Election Day.”
40th District: Shapiro’s coattails?
The district: Some of Pittsburgh’s South Hills suburbs. Municipalities: Bethel Park, Upper St. Clair (Ward 3, Districts 1 and 2; Ward 4, Districts 2, 3 and 4; Ward 5), Peters
The candidates: The incumbent is Republican Rep. Natalie Mihalek, of Peters, who was first elected in 2018. The Democratic challenger is Jon Lloyd of Bethel Park.
The past results:
2024 presidential: Trump (R) +6
2024 legislative: Mihalek (R) +21
2022 legislative: Mihalek (R) +14
Mihalek outran Trump by 15 points in 2024, turning a relatively close district into a comfortable re-election. Though Trump is not on the ballot this year, he and his policies weigh on the minds of many voters, so Mihalek may need to outrun the president’s popularity again to keep her seat.
Democrats have never won this district, dating back to 1969, before which seats were apportioned by county.
Facing an entrenched incumbent who has won by large margins in the past, Lloyd said he is hearing from voters who have soured on the officials in power at all levels of government.
“We’re hearing an unheard of lack of trust and faith in government to do anything about it and help people,” Lloyd said.
Lloyd is hoping for an assist from sharing the ballot with Shapiro, who excelled in the district in 2022, carrying Bethel Park and Upper St. Clair by 20 and 25 points, respectively.
“Shapiro is a very favorable governor in this district,” Lloyd said.
Mihalek did not respond to interview requests. Her campaign website positions education as her top issue, followed by healthcare and jobs.
Weismantle said this race and others in the county will come down to which party does a better job of turning out their voters.
“We have well-qualified candidates in office, we have well-qualified candidates running and I just hope our voters do the research and realize what’s going to happen should we not elect the proper people into office,” Weismantle said. “… People have to get more involved and pay attention to what’s going on, because if not, we’re going to start losing our rights and it’s going to be too hard to turn back.”
Charlie Wolfson is Pittsburgh Public Source’s local government reporter. He can be reached at charlie@publicsource.org.
This story was fact-checked by Danny Arensberg.
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